2010 Ivy Football Predictions

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Harvard
2. Pennsylvania
3. Columbia
4. Brown
5. Dartmouth
6. Yale
7. Cornell
8. Princeton

(You can see last year’s predictions: By clicking here)




State of the League

I don’t know if the rich are getting richer in Ivy football, but they’re certainly staying rich.

I’m talking about Harvard and Penn, of course. Those two programs dominated the league in the 2000’s with only an occasional disruption to one or the other’s reign at the top.

Most of those disruptions came from Brown as the once-lowly Bears continued the momentum from a resurgent decade of the 90’s and bagged two titles in the 2000’s for good measure.

But Brown stepped back a bit from the heights last season and that trend looks very much like it will continue in 2010.

Meanwhile, the Crimson and the Quakers seem stronger than ever in comparison to the rest of the league. The biggest reason is coaching.

Penn’s Al Bagnoli and Harvard’s Tim Murphy stand #1 and #2 respectively on the list of Ivy coaches with the most longevity. They are proven winners and both have weathered some minor and major storms along the way.

Bagnoli is actually in the midst of his most impressive comeback after what had been a shocking slide in the Quaker program that had produced, (gasp !), back-to-back losing conference records in the middle of the decade.

Murphy continues to shine and make his predecessor Joe Restic look worse year after year. The Crimson had one of the best winning percentages of any program in college football in the 2000’s all while Harvard’s other major men’s sports programs suffered significant declines.

For all the stability at the top of the league, the rest of the conference has been in flux. Five of the other six teams have made head coaching changes over the last six years, three in the last two years alone. Teams like Yale and Princeton have gone from weaklings in the beginning of the decade, to champions, to right back down to weaklings in short order.


Changes on the Field

There was more change on the actual gridiron, however, as the style of play in the Ivies has shifted drastically from where it was 10 years ago.

Ivy football is much more about running than it has been at any time since the early 1970’s. Most teams feature running or option QB’s, and running the ball by committee is the norm with multiple backs often seeing 15+ carries per game.

The result is the near extinction of 1,000-yard rushers, and QB’s who get through an entire season without significant injury.

Shorter passing attacks are also the norm, as the deep-ball/vertical passing attack is becoming less of regular sight on Saturdays.

But the games are also getting more exciting, with a lot more close contests in any given season. While teams like Harvard and Penn have been dominant, they are not winning games by three and four TD’s with any regularity.


Clean Bill of Health?

The players you see on the field are more athletic, the game plans more complex, and the overall excitement factor is way up.

But the overall state of the league seems threatened.

Attendance is down, and the continued dominance of just two teams atop the league will not help matters in that area.

The league presidents still bar our champions from participating in the FCS playoffs or scheduling an 11th game. That hurts recruiting and does not help fan interest.

Hostility towards athletics is on the rise on some campuses. And the continued high cost of tuition despite some great programs to reduce costs overall, are a major threat to Ivy League athletics.

Hopefully, the tide will turn over the next decade and the existential threat to Ivy sports won’t be as pronounced in 2020.


Now, let’s look at the league team-by-team.



Treavor Scales


1. Harvard

Overview

Tim Murphy is now an undisputed master of recruiting and team management. He routinely not only gets top talent to commit to the Crimson, but he gets them to wait two to three years before they get their chance to really play for the varsity.

Last year’s Harvard team was just a notch too weak offensively to clinch a title, and that probably haunts the coaching staff in Cambridge no end.

As a result, I expect Murphy and crew to take more chances this season. The biggest gamble is possibly tinkering with the second best overall QB in the Ivies last year, Collier Winters. Winters is clearly fighting for his job against transfer Andrew Hatch, a prodigal son to Harvard. Hatch is back in Cambridge after transferring to and playing with the national champion LSU Tigers… and then transferring back to Harvard last year.

BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

It’s the running game.

Treavor Scales is that rare super-talented juggernaut that gets playing time as a frosh even for Harvard. His running abilities got him on the field as a freshman last year and he will continue that rise to prominence this season. Despite lots of graduations on the offensive line, Murphy is confident his replacements might be even better. And don’t forget that Scales has the formidable FB Gino Gordon to block for him as well.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

The new offensive line may falter in pass protection, meaning the deep talent at QB led by Winters and Hatch is all the more important. There are also some losses at linebacker that could hurt Harvard’s ability to stop the option run and outside ground attacks.


Why They'll Win it all in 2009

The offense will work more smoothly with a more experienced Scales as the feature back. Winters or Hatch will play their best games as they cling to the starting job. The revamped defensive line will stuff the run better this season and the team will be extra motivated to avenge last year’s loss to Penn.


Why They May Disappoint

The Hatch drama could derail team unity and the new offensive line may need more time than advertised to play as a cohesive unit. And can the Crimson beat both Penn and Brown on the road?


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

I knew that the season would basically come down to who was at QB to replace the great Chris Pizzotti. Despite Collier Winters’ overall great season, his inability to get the offense moving against Penn cost the Crimson the title.


What I got wrong about them last year

I was surprised that the wide receivers, especially Matt Luft didn’t have better seasons in 2009. Luft is now gone, but guys like Chris Lorditch and Adam Chrisis are back for another chance.


Key Early Game to Watch

If Harvard can’t beat a graduation-scarred Brown team in week 2, even though it’s on the road, the stock on this team falls faster than shares of BP in April.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was the best of a long line of great offensive skill players in Cambridge during the 2000's. His recent tenure as a starting quarterback in the NFL is only solidifying his amazing legacy at Harvard.



Lyle Marsh


2. Penn


Overview

What looked like Head Coach Al Bagnoli losing his fastball just two years ago now seems like just a temporary bump in the road for the dean of Ivy coaches. Three seasons of struggling yielded to a nice climb to third place in 2008 and an outright title in 2009.

But more than anything else, the Penn resurgence was due to a super defense that was very strong in 2008 and was historically stingy by allowing just 9.5 points per game in 2009.

Offensively, this program still has much to prove. And with a defense that just HAS to be weaker than the supernatural unit the Quakers fielded last season, you have to say Penn will have a tougher time repeating as champs.

The tragic intangible is the second suicide for a player in the Penn program in just five years. This time it was a team captain in Owen Thomas who’s presence was needed on graduation-decimated defensive line.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

Running game. The entire offensive line returns for 2010 and it was darn good in 2009. Sophomore Lyle Marsh and senior Mike DiMaggio make for a fearsome tandem at tailback and QB Keiffer Garton can be a force on the ground if the coaches unleash him and his gimpy knee like they did in 2008.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

The passing game is still completely unproven and as good as the Penn running attack should be, the Quakers will have to eventually prove some degree of competence when the opposing defense puts eight men in the box.


Why They Could Win it all in 2009

The defense won’t drop off too much and the offense will improve. Penn will smoke the other top-level teams in the Ivies; Harvard, Columbia and Brown… all home games for the Quakers this season.


Why They May Disappoint

The passing game will falter at key moments and the defense will falter much more than expected. The fallout from the Thomas suicide will also hurt on and off the field.


What I got right about them last year

I knew the defense would have All Ivy players at every position.


What I got wrong about them last year

I thought Penn would be toast if Keiffer Garton went down to injury. He did, and the Quakers still went 7-0 in the league… mostly because the defense picked up the team in historic fashion.


Key Game to Watch

The Dartmouth game in week 3 will be telling. I expect the Big Green to be 2-0 coming into that contest and riding high. If the Quakers are sleepwalking, they could get burned. If they excel, they will simultaneously raise their title chances and take a lot of air out of a team supposedly on the rise.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

QB Mike Mitchell was a big bulky passer who was also a super team leader. He held the wheel on the dominant 2002 and 2003 Penn squads that won back-to-back Ivy titles. The Quaker offense hasn't quite been the same since he left.


3. Columbia

(My detailed preview for our Lions will be released a week from today)





Kyle Newhall-Caballero


4. Brown


Overview

Over the past 16 years, there has been no more remarkable story in Ivy League football than the turnaround Brown program. With subpar facilities, a way too-distant winning tradition, and questionable fan and alumni support, the team has become a consistent winner. Last year was no exception, as new QB Kyle Newhall-Caballero calmly took over the starting job and the Bears were within razor thin losses to Harvard and Penn from repeating as champions for 2009.

But remaining at the top seems like a stretch for this year’s team that’s so decimated by graduation. No one doubts Head Coach Phil Estes ability to bring along new talent, but there are too many holes to fill all at once this year.

This teams seems like it will match the feats of the 2007 Brown squad that made great strides from a terrible 2006, but was still a year away from seriously running for the title.

One X factor is the JV team, which was stellar last year as everyone can attest if they saw them rip Columbia the day before the varsity game last year.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

Newhall-Caballero is a great passer and a lot of fun to watch. He will help the new receivers in the starting lineup develop faster than any other factor. It’s hard to imagine the Bears having too much trouble on offense as long as he’s in there.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

The front seven on defense looks more than a little iffy. Head Coach Phil Estes loses two NFL-quality D-linemen in David Howard and James Develin. Guys like that just don’t grow on trees.


Why They Could Win it all in 2009

Maybe that JV team last really was harboring 2-3 defensive players who could have started for almost any other team. And maybe the offense will start moving the ball even better than expected with all the new faces.


Why They'll Disappoint

I contend that even a .500 season wouldn’t be a disappointment with all the losses to graduation. But if the Bears defense can’t stop the run and the offense finds itself without Newhall-Caballero for a game or three… this team could easily go 3-7.


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

I never had a doubt that Newhall-Caballero was going to be a very, very good QB even in his first year.


What I got wrong about them last year

I thought they would have one at least one of the two games against Penn and Harvard. They lost both.


Key Early Game to Watch

For Brown, it’s always about that week 2 game against Harvard. A win for the Bears under the lights at Brown Stadium would sent a lightning bolt through the program and the league. But more realistically, Brown fans should be hoping for a good showing and some valuable big game experience for all the new starters.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

RB Nick Hartigan was as fast as a conventional tailback and as tough as a fullback. He dominated almost every game he played and the Bears rode his back to a 2005 outright league title.



Nick Schwieger


5. Dartmouth


Overview

The kind of optimism and enthusiasm coming out of the Dartmouth program is more intense than I can ever remember, and this is actually good for the entire league. But enthusiasm alone isn’t the only reason to believe the Big Green are on the upswing.

The two biggest reasons for real, and not imagined, optimism in Hanover are Nick Schweiger and the new coaching staff. Schweiger is the best slashing/cutting runner in the Ivies, enabling him to rack up nice gains even without a bevy of All Ivy linemen in front of him. The new assistant coaches Head Coach Buddy Teevens has brought in for 2010 not only bring major talent and experience, but they prove that Teevens was willing to shift gears after five years of disappointing results in his second stint in the top spot at Memorial Field.

And Dartmouth has finally removed killer opponents UNH and Colgate from the schedule for now. They’ve been replaced by Sacred Heart and Bucknell, two games that look like wins this year for the Green.

But holes on the interior lines on offense and defense, plus Dartmouth’s continued inability to win on the road will keep the Big Green from reaching the upper half of the league this year. Teevens’ biggest challenge will be to make sure expectations aren’t so high that going 4-6 or even 5-5 are seen as a let down by the fans and players.

For a team that was 2-8 last year and 0-10 the year before, these will be good problems to have.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

Schwieger. This season, he’ll get some help from converted QB Greg Patton and a more diversified offensive attack overall. I also like Charles Bay on defense, who has a great shot to lead the Ivies in sacks and TFL this year.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

Dartmouth should continue to have trouble stopping the run this season, a kiss of death in this run-heavy league.


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

Sadly for Lions fans, I knew the game against Columbia would be the Big Green’s first and best chance to win an Ivy game in 2009. Sure enough, Dartmouth ended a 17-game losing streak with a win against the Lions last year.


What I got wrong about them last year

Nothing much.


Key Early Game to Watch

The opener at Bucknell is a very serious challenge for this squad. This is a game Dartmouth should win despite the fact that it’s on the road. A loss there and the big happy bubble growing in Hanover bursts in a big way.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

Tight end Casey Cramer was a star for some subpar Big Green teams in the early 2000's. He parlayed his athleticism and tenacity into an impressive NFL career.




Adam Money


6. Yale


Overview

Has there been any team in the Ivies whose fortunes are more closely tied to the Head Coach than Yale? After years of attributing everything bad about the Elis to Jack Siedlecki, new chief Tom Williams bore the brunt of Bulldog ire after his bonehead call in the Harvard-Yale game cost his squad a win.

But Williams deserved the criticism, and probably deserved more. He and his staff badly mismanaged the offense last season, especially the QB situation where a loud-mouthed Patrick Witt was a walking poster boy for poor discipline and inconsistency on and off the field.

Witt seems more poised this year, thanks to a strong vote of confidence from Williams. But there’s no guarantee the offense will be much better with continued issues on the offensive line and the still unproven Alex Thomas getting the primary running job.

And then there’s high expectations from the Yale alumni who seem oblivious to the fact that after a few good years in the mid-2000’s, this program is starting to face serious recruiting inadequacies compared to Harvard, Penn, and now Columbia.

This has all the makings of another learning season for Williams and company.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

The secondary, led by the team’s best player in Adam Money, is solid. The defense overall will be almost as good as last year.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

Don’t expect this squad to score points in bunches, or even at all for long stretches. Witt will be better overall, but who is he throwing to exactly?


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

I knew Patrick Witt would not be a Bushnell Cup contender like some pundits were making him out to be.


What I got wrong about them last year

I thought the receivers would be a lot better.


Key Early Game to Watch

The Elis have been downright sloppy in two straight week 2 losses to Cornell in 2008 and 2009. Yale needs to go up to Ithaca and stop the bleeding this time around.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

RB Mike McLeod. Before his injury in late 2007, McLeod dominated the league like no other runner with the exception of Hartigan. He single-handedly carried the Eli offense in their co-championship year of 2006.




Dempsey Quinn


7. Cornell


Overview


The Big Red are the definition of a rebuilding team this year. New coach and new starters at just about every key position. That new coach is Kent Austin, who brings an impressive resume to the job but has his hands full with the most talent-poor squad in the Ivies.

The good news is that there are no irrational expectations for this crew in or outside the program and Austin will have plenty of time to develop his young players.

Judging by the overall excellence in the Cornell athletic program right now, I think it’s only a matter of time before the football team returns to contending for titles like it did before the disastrous decade that was the 2000’s. As long as the Big Red can keep Austin in town for more than three years, this will happen.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

There’s some decent experience on defense, but this was a poor defense in 2009. The best the Big Red can hope for is that the seasoned players will respond better to the new staff.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

The dearth of any proven talent in the skill positions.


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

I knew that Bryan Walters would be the best thing about Cornell last year.


What I got wrong about them last year

I thought the defense would be a little better than it was.


Key Early Game to Watch

Week 2 vs. Yale. It’s Homecoming for the Big Red. Can Cornell make it three in a row against the Elis?


Player of the Decade 2000-2009


OL Kevin Boothe. A three-time 1st Team All Ivy, Boothe led the way for some great Cornell running attacks in the mid-2000's. Boothe went on to the NFL as an early round draft choice.




Stephen Cody


8. Princeton


Overview


Princeton became the latest Ivy team to choose someone with very little head coaching experience at all for its top spot when it chose alum Bob Surace to take over. (Surace was Head Coach at DIII Western Connecticut for two years, sorry I forgot that in an earlier edition of this post). Surace is a nice enough fellow with good playing experience, but recent Ivy history shows that programs that make choices like him have a very rough road.

That’s the way it’s begun in Old Nassau as the new staff is having a tough time motivating the veterans. Some key players on an already decimated offensive line have called it quits, and there are some real doubts about the planned hurry up offense for 2010.

On the plus side, Surace should get at least a year or two before he feels any serious alumni pressure. But if his Tigers lose games like the 38-0 mauling they endured from Columbia last season, his time will run out faster than that.

The best news is the return of Jordan Culbreath to the team after facing a life-threatening form of anemia last year that had the entire league and its fans praying for his well being. I expect Culbreath to be more than just an emotional factor this season, but not a 1,200-yard running back like he was in 2008.


BEST OVERALL STRENGTH

With the speedy little Tommy Wornham at QB and some other experienced ball carriers, I like the Tigers overall running game.


BIGGEST OVERALL WEAKNESS

Massive losses on the offensive line will temper that running strength. A close second in the weakness category is the secondary completely stocked with new starters.


WHAT I GOT RIGHT ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

Last year’s veteran secondary was much worse than I expected. All the teams with decent passing games beat Princeton in 2009.


WHAT I GOT WRONG ABOUT THEM LAST YEAR

I thought the pass defense would be better


Key Early Game to Watch

Week three at Columbia. The Tigers haven’t lost two games in a row to Columbia… ever. A loss here and the alums start to grumble.


Player of the Decade 2000-2009

QB Jeff Terrell seemed to single-handedly turn the Tiger program around in 2005 and 2006. His quick release and general poise helped Princeton overcome a neophyte offensive line to win an Ivy title in 2006. The team has gone steadily downhill since his graduation.